1.Weekly Market Review: From “Dead Water” to a “Tsunami”
Just 14 days ago, the entire market was still crying that “trading volume had fallen to the lowest level since 2019.” Then suddenly, Bitcoin exploded from $63,838 to $81,255.
BTC gained 27% in 21 days, with a 20% surge in just three days — the strongest three-day rally since 2023.
Ethereum was not left behind, rising more than 30% last week. The entire market instantly switched from a “ghost town atmosphere” to a “bull market celebration mode.”
However, the party did not last long.
After hitting $81,255, BTC quickly pulled back by $2,700, falling toward the $78,500 area. As of the Asian trading session on August 28, BTC was fluctuating around $79,800.
The daily candlestick formed a typical long upper shadow, a textbook example of a sharp rally followed by a rejection.
2.Why Did BTC Surge？ Three Words: Short Squeeze! Short Squeeze! Short Squeeze!
The main driver behind this rally was not retail FOMO.
Instead, it was a combination of U.S. Treasury buyback operations and a forced liquidation cascade of approximately $4 billion in short positions.
Short sellers watched helplessly as BTC climbed from $64K all the way to $81K. They were forced to close positions at higher prices, which in turn accelerated the upward momentum.
Crypto whale Garrett Jin continued accumulating at around $79,000, adding another 600 BTC, bringing his total long position to 1,868 BTC, worth approximately $147 million.
At the same time, however, miners sold 1,648 BTC within 10 days (around $106 million).
Some market participants are buying aggressively, while others are selling with conviction — this is the current market reality.
3.ETF Flows: Looks Powerful, But Remains Fragile
Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.92 billion in net inflows this week, marking nine consecutive days of inflows, and August is on track to become a record-breaking month.
But a deeper look at the data reveals a more concentrated picture:
- BlackRock IBIT contributed 62%
- Fidelity FBTC contributed around 31%
- The remaining dozen-plus ETFs combined contributed less than 7%
- Since 2026 began, total ETF holdings have still declined by approximately 92,000 BTC
Ethereum ETFs, meanwhile, have become the real highlight:
- ETH ETF holdings increased 8.80% in August
- Capital inflow momentum surpassed Bitcoin ETFs
- BlackRocks ETHA attracted $90.92 million in a single day
4.The Biggest Uncertainty: Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
At 22:00 Beijing time on August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Waller will deliver a major speech.
This will be the most important policy signal before the September 16 FOMC meeting.
Currently:
- Core PCE inflation remains elevated at 3.3% (above the Feds 2% target)
- Three Fed officials have already warned about inflation risks
- Interest-rate futures show a 34%-42% probability of a September rate hike
One sentence from Waller could trigger a $2,000-$3,000 move in BTC within minutes.
5.The Final Key Warning
Bitcoin is now like walking on a tightrope at 80,000 feet in the sky — with no safety net below.
After a 27% rally in 21 days, technical indicators are showing severe overbought conditions.
If Waller delivers a hawkish message and BTC breaks below $77,000, the correction target could directly move toward $73,000-$75,000.
If the Fed turns dovish and ETF inflows continue, BTC holding above $81,500 could open the door to $85,000 or even $90,000.
Before the market direction becomes clear:
Reduce leverage, set stop losses, and avoid holding losing positions indefinitely.
Stay alive first — only those who survive will have the chance to witness the real bull market.