CLARITY Act delay pushes passage bets into 2027
Prediction markets are shifting expectations for the CLARITY Act into 2027 after Senate leaders declined to start the procedural process needed for a vote before the August recess. CLARITY Act odds shift toward 2027 Kalshi traders have become more doubtful that Congress will complete work on the CLARITY Act in 2026 as the Senates pre-recess window narrows. A contract tracking whether the legislation will take effect before July 1, 2027, dropped eight percentage points to 41% on Tuesday. The decline suggests traders increasingly expect the process to extend beyond 2026, although the contract does not measure passage during 2026 alone. The probability of the bill taking effect before Oct. 1, 2027, stood at 58%. Odds for enactment before Jan. 1, 2028, rose to 65%, showing that bettors still expect the legislation to advance over a longer timeframe. More than $5.42 million has been traded across the Kalshi market. The shift followed another day without a cloture filing from Senate Majority Leader John Thune, preventing the chamber from starting the formal countdown toward a procedural vote. Senate delay narrows the voting window The Senate‘s Aug. 4 floor schedule did not include H.R. 3633, and the chamber’s official list of pending cloture motions named two unrelated measures. No motion
