Prediction market traders skeptical Bessent will send yields lower
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent arrives to testify during a Senate Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government hearing in the Dirksen Senate Office Building on April 22, 2026 in Washington, DC. Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is seeking to cap rising yields using a variety of tools at his department‘s disposal. However, traders on prediction market platforms think they won’t lead yields to fall dramatically. Speculators on Kalshi think theres a 56% chance that the 10-year Treasury note yield will end 2026 above or at 4.75%, though they also place just 27% odds that it finishes the year above 5%. As of midday trading Monday, the 10-year yield was trading at about 4.70%. Traders on Kalshi are asked across a series of contracts about where they think the 10-year Treasury note yield will trade on Dec. 31. The contracts are resolved using data from the U.S. Treasury. Volume on the contracts are low, though, at just over $16,500 traded. On Polymarket, speculators place two-in-three odds that the 10-year Treasury note yield will cross 4.8% at some point in 2026, a level that it hasnt breached even amid a recent bonds sell-off. The contracts on Polymarket are also resolved