Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz closed, deepening global supply chain disruptions
Tech Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz closed, deepening global supply chain disruptions Irans continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Israel conflict has deepened global supply chain disruptions. The market for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by May 15 is at 15.5% YES, up slightly from 14% twenty-four hours ago. Market reaction The May 31 market for Trump lifting the US blockade of Hormuz fell sharply to 50.5% YES, down from 58% a day ago. Traders see little chance of a quick resolution. The largest single move was a 12-point spike in the May 31 market, which settled back down, suggesting volatile positioning driven by speculation rather than concrete diplomatic progress. The Strait of Hormuz traffic market has $1,000,111 in face value per day but only $184,621 in actual USDC. It takes $37,667 to move the price by 5 points, enough to absorb moderate institutional trades but still vulnerable to large orders. The Trump blockade market has $554,169 in face value and $322,748 in real trades, requiring $16,155 for a 5-point move. Why it matters The closure affects not just oil and LNG but also critical minerals, with broader economic consequences. At 15.5¢, a YES bet on Hormuz traffic normalizing by May 15 pays $1,