Japanese Yen: Japans fiscal pivot and GPIF flows reshape rates – BNY
BNY‘s Geoff Yu highlights Japan’s new fiscal guidelines under Prime Minister Takaichi, which prioritize proactive spending and long-term investment over near-term consolidation. The plan targets large public-private outlays and abandons the single-year primary surplus goal, while GPIF and insurers increase domestic and super-long JGB exposure, influencing USD/JPY and Japanese Yen (JPY) rate dynamics. Proactive spending and JGB demand in focus “Japans Cabinet approved its first economic and fiscal policy guidelines under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, marking a clear shift toward aggressive, strategic fiscal spending with no explicit call for fiscal consolidation. The blueprint treats the next fiscal year from April as the first year of ”responsible and proactive“ spending and targets ¥370tn of combined public-private investment by fiscal 2040, with a focus on 17 areas, especially semiconductors.” “It also introduces a new budget allotment from fiscal 2027 and ends the traditional push for a single-year primary surplus, instead seeking to steadily lower the debt-to-GDP ratio over time. The government aims for real growth above 1% and nominal growth above 3% and plans to decide on a possible food tax cut by early August. It reiterated that monetary policy remains the Bank of Japans (BoJ) responsibility.” “Japanese insurers bought the most super-long JGBs in three