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Iran nuclear deal skepticism rises amid US blockade impact

Bitcoin Ethereum News　　## Market Snapshot　　The WTI Crude Oil market for May 2026 is currently focused on whether prices will hit $150, with a suggested increase in YES sentiment due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, the US-Iran nuclear deal market shows a 16.0% YES probability, reflecting skepticism about a deal by the end of May.　　## Key Takeaways　　– Market activity suggests a rising likelihood of WTI crude oil prices reaching $150 in May, consistent with ongoing geopolitical tensions. – The US-Iran nuclear deal market indicates decreased confidence in a deal being reached by May 31, with a 16.0% YES probability. – Palantirs expected revenue growth does not directly impact these markets but reflects broader tech sector rebounds.　　## Article Body　　Palantir is anticipated to report strong first-quarter revenue growth, driven by its commercial AIP platform gaining traction and a stable government business. This comes as the broader software sector shows signs of recovery. In parallel, geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz continue to influence global oil markets. President Trumps comments on the effectiveness of the US naval blockade of Iran suggest sustained economic pressure on Tehran. This blockade, which targets oil exports, is reportedly costing Iran $400-500 million

05-04

US maintains legal blockade of Strait of Hormuz, reducing war declaration likelihood

Bitcoin Ethereum News　　## Market Snapshot　　The market for Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, currently indicates a 29.5% YES probability, down from 40% one day ago. The market for a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, shows a 7.5% YES probability, slightly up from 6% a day earlier.　　## Key Takeaways　　– The statement by Acting AG Todd Blanche that the blockade is legal suggests a continuation of the current US stance. – Markets appear to interpret the blockade as a de-escalatory measure, decreasing the likelihood of a US war declaration. – The confirmation of legality may indicate a reduced probability of the blockade being lifted imminently.　　## Article Body　　In response to inquiries about the United States stance towards Iran, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche clarified that the active naval blockade is not an act of war but a legal enforcement measure. The blockade, initiated on April 13, 2026, following failed peace negotiations, aims to restrict Iranian oil exports while maintaining free passage for other nations. Although the blockade imposes significant economic pressure on Iran, US officials, including Blanche, assert its legality despite criticisms from international law experts. The

05-04

Tehran healthcare collapse amid US-Israel strikes sparks airspace closure fears

Bitcoin Ethereum News　　## Market Snapshot　　The “Iran closes its airspace by May 8” market is currently priced at 13.5% YES, down from 18% 24 hours ago. The “Iran closes its airspace by May 31” market shows a 34.5% YES probability, also down from 42% a day earlier. The “Iranian regime fall by June 30” market is at 5.5% YES, a slight decrease from 6% the previous day.　　## Key Takeaways　　– Market activity suggests increased likelihood of Iran closing its airspace due to escalating military tensions and humanitarian crises. – The humanitarian impact on Irans healthcare system appears consistent with scenarios supporting a higher likelihood of regime instability. – Current pricing indicates a moderate probability of regime fall, but not an immediate expectation of change by June 30.　　## Article Body　　Tehran‘s healthcare system is nearing collapse amid the ongoing U.S.-led Operation Epic Fury, as Israeli and American airstrikes have severely damaged Iran’s medical infrastructure. Key pharmaceutical factories and research institutes have been destroyed, leading to severe shortages of medical supplies. The situation has resulted in outbreaks of infectious diseases among displaced populations and toxic air pollution affecting the capital. Experts are warning of a humanitarian crisis as hospitals are reduced to makeshift clinics. The

05-04

Bitcoin Technical Setup Points to Key Breakout Zone Near $80K – Bitcoin News

Bitcoin Ethereum News　　Key Takeaways:holds $78K on May 3, 2026, as market data shows consolidation below $80K resistance.TradingView indicators show 62 and mixed signals, signaling indecision across markets.tests $80K zone; break or rejection may drive next 5% to 10% move in the coming sessions.　　Chart Outlook　　The daily chart structure for bitcoin reflects a transition phase from a prior macro downtrend into a developing recovery pattern. Price action has established higher lows following a rebound from the $60,000 region, signaling an improving market structure. However, the current range near $78,000 to $79,000 places just beneath a significant supply zone between $80,000 and $82,000, where prior distribution occurred.　　This positioning suggests that while downside momentum has eased, continuation remains unconfirmed on the higher timeframe. The $72,000 to $74,000 range continues to act as a key demand zone, maintaining structural integrity. A sustained move below $70,000 would weaken the broader recovery thesis and reintroduce downside risk.　　/USD 1-day chart via Bitstamp on May 3, 2026.　　On the four-hour chart, bitcoin maintains a well-defined upward channel that has been intact since early April. The sequence of higher highs and higher lows reinforces a constructive trend, though momentum appears to be moderating as price approaches overhead resistance.　　/USD 4-hour chart via

05-04

US warns of sanctions for ships paying Iran tolls in Strait of Hormuz

Bitcoin Ethereum News　　## Market Snapshot　　The market concerning whether Trump will agree to Iranian demands is now less optimistic, with the current pricing suggesting a decrease in the likelihood of a YES outcome. The WTI Crude Oil market reflects increased concern, with indications supportive of a YES outcome for prices reaching $150 in May. The market for a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 shows a moderate decrease, now priced at 27.6% YES.　　## Key Takeaways　　– The U.S. warning of sanctions for ships paying Iran tolls appears to decrease the likelihood of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands. – The threat of sanctions suggests an increased likelihood of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which could push WTI crude oil prices higher. – The escalation in tensions decreases the probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting occurring by June 30.　　## Article Body　　The United States has issued a warning to shipping companies about potential sanctions if they pay Iran for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This development is part of the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis, where Iran has been charging tolls over $1 million per ship and blocking passage to vessels from hostile nations since March 7. This move by the U.S.

05-04

Attack on bulk carrier near Iran heightens regional tensions

Bitcoin Ethereum News　　## Market Snapshot　　In the market for “Iran closes its airspace by May 8？”, the current YES pricing is 12.5%, down from 18% 24 hours ago. For “Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of June,” the market is pricing a decreased likelihood, with no specific YES odds provided.　　## Key Takeaways　　– The attack on a bulk carrier near Sirik, Iran, appears to suggest heightened regional tensions, consistent with scenarios where Iran might consider closing its airspace. – Pricing suggests a decreased likelihood of normalization in Strait of Hormuz traffic by the end of June, reflecting ongoing instability in the region. – The report from @zerohedge, although significant, lacks tier-1 credibility, potentially limiting its impact on market movements.　　## Article Body　　An attack on a bulk carrier by small craft 11 nautical miles west of Sirik, Iran, has been reported by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). This incident is part of the broader 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, involving heightened tensions between Iran, the United States, Israel, and US-allied Gulf states. The crisis began in February 2026, following a US-Israeli air war against Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliations, including missile and drone strikes. The current situation is characterized by a

05-04

5 Reasons Why OFAC’s $344 Million USDT Freeze May Not Be Iran-Linked, Expert Reveals

Five anomalies in the OFAC-sanctioned wallets suggest the $344 million USDT freeze may not be Iran-linked. The findings come from blockchain intelligence firm Nominis.　　Nominis CEO Snir Levi published the analysis Sunday, breaking down behavioral patterns of the seized addresses. The data points toward overlap with Chinese state-linked infrastructure rather than the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).　　1. The Wallets Accumulated, Then Went Dormant　　The designated addresses began moving Tether (USDT) in mid-2021 and ramped up high-value transfers through early 2023. After February 2023, Nominis said, the wallets fell largely inactive.　　That accumulate-then-freeze shape clashes with prior IRGC flows, which usually keep funds in motion to dodge seizure.　　2. Concentrated Balances Break From Past IRGC Patterns　　Past IRGC clusters spread funds across many wallets and capped individual balances at a few million dollars. They also cycled holdings quickly to limit exposure to freezes.　　The wallets caught last week instead carry large, sustained balances over multi-year holding windows.　　3. Direct Exposure to Huobi and Huione Infrastructure　　A root wallet in the cluster shows transfers to Huobi, now HTX, and onward links into Huione Group infrastructure.　　Levi said the activity matches Chinese-dominated exchange behavior from around 2021, including patterns Nominis tracks across HTX and related platforms.　　4. Asia-Aligned Operational Timing　　A separate HTX deposit

05-04

New York forces Uphold to pay $5M over fraudulent crypto investment scheme

New York Attorney General Letitia James has secured more than $5 million from cryptocurrency platform Uphold over its role in promoting a fraudulent investment product.　　The settlement centers around Upholds promotion of CredEarn, a product offered by Cred, LLC and its CEO Daniel Schatt. Between January 2019 and October 2020, the platform marketed CredEarn to users on its platform and mobile app as a safe, reliable savings product with attractive annual interest payments.　　However, Uphold didn‘t tell customers that Cred was generating those returns by making microloans to low-income video game players in China, who are typically borrowers with no credit histories and no access to traditional financial institutions, the Attorney General’s office said in an announcement.　　Source: NY AG James　　Uphold also told customers that Cred carried “comprehensive insurance,” a claim the Attorney Generals office found to be false. No such insurance protecting retail investors from digital asset losses existed in the industry at the time. On top of the misleading promotion, Uphold was operating without the required broker or commodity broker-dealer registration.　　Cred collapse hits Uphold users　　Cred began racking up losses from its risky lending practices in March 2020 and filed for bankruptcy eight months later, leaving thousands of Uphold customers around the

05-04

Wall Streets $292 billion risk-on rotation just created a new bullish setup for Bitcoin

Global equity funds pulled in over $15 billion in the week through Apr. 1, then $23.47 billion, $31.26 billion, and finally $48.72 billion in the week through Apr. 22.　　Global money-market funds simultaneously bled a $173.24 billion outflow in the week through Apr. 15, the biggest single-week exit from cash since at least September 2018.　　Together, the figures create a roughly $292 billion risk-on signal, combining $118 billion of global equity fund inflows across four weeks with a separate $173 billion weekly exit from cash.　　Coinbase and Glassnodes Q2 Institutional Outlook puts $BTCs daily return correlation with the Ss survey of 91 global investors, comprising 29 institutions and 62 non-institutions, conducted between Mar. 16 and Apr. 7.　　Among institutional respondents, 75% view Bitcoin as undervalued, while 61% of non-institutional crypto investors hold the same view. Only 7% of institutions and 11% of non-institutions see $BTC as overvalued.　　Those numbers describe a market where buyers of size still see room to the upside. Capital rotating into risk meets an asset that its most sophisticated holders still consider cheap, held by a market yet to rewire itself for euphoria.　　The on-chain picture　　$BTC supply moved within the last three months fell 37% during the first quarter, while supply that

05-04

Ethereum Set for 3x Capacity Boost, What It Means for Fees

Ethereum　　Ethereum Set for 3x Capacity Boost, What It Means for Fees　　According to Hasu, a Lido advisor, following the Glamsterdam upgrade, Ethereums gas limit will increase significantly from the current 60 million to nearly 200 million. This implies that L1 execution capacity will increase by more than 3x and is expected to double again shortly thereafter.　　Ethereums next major upgrade, Glamsterdam, includes a number of Execution Layer (EL) gas repricings, calibrating costs to better match resource usage at higher throughput. EIP-8037, the state-creation gas cost increase, is at the center, raising the price of writing new state so that a higher gas limit does not result in unbounded state growth.　　You Might Also Like　　Adam Back Defines Best Defense to Quantum Risk, Ripple CTO Emeritus Shows Rare Support to XRP Meme Coin, Barry Silbert Co-Signs $1,000 Zcash (ZEC) Prediction – Morning Crypto Report　　Bitcoiners Agree Satoshis Coins Must Remain Untouched　　In his tweet, Hasu pointed out that, assuming no equivalent surge in network demand, Ethereum mainnet gas fees are likely to remain near zero for the next few years.　　A fact I feel like almost nobody knows: Ethereums gas limit will be increased to ~200M after Glamsterdam, a huge increase from the 60M we have today.　　Thats a

05-03

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