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Republican odds to win presidency, Congress surge to highest this year

## Market Snapshot　　The market for the “2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House” currently prices at 41.5% YES, down from 48% a day ago. The “Republican Senate Seats After 2026 Midterms” shows 25.5% YES, slightly decreased from 26% 24 hours earlier.　　## Key Takeaways　　– Market data suggests a significant increase in Republican chances across major races. – Pricing indicates reduced likelihood for a Democratic-controlled Senate and House. – The focus remains on the 2026 midterms, with implications for Republican Senate retention.　　## Article Body　　Recent developments show a rise in Republican odds to maintain control of the Presidency, House, and Senate in the 2026 elections, reaching their highest levels this year. Currently, Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. With 35 Senate seats up for grabs in the November 2026 elections, including specials in Florida and Ohio, Democrats need to gain four seats to secure control. The House remains narrowly Republican-controlled, making it susceptible to historical midterm trends that often favor the opposition party. These changes occur amidst US-China tensions and global conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.　　## Market Interpretation　　The market reaction appears consistent with a scenario where Republicans are increasingly favored to retain control, particularly in the Senate. The downward trend

05-10

Kraken Parent Payward Targets OCC Charter to Unlock Institutional Digital Asset Custody

Krakens Parent Files OCC Trust Charter Application to Serve U.S. Institutional Clients　　If approved by the OCC, the new entity would operate as Payward National Trust Company, providing fiduciary custody and related services primarily for digital assets. The company expects to serve both institutional clients and individual customers who require bank-level custody under federal oversight.　　Payward Co-CEO Arjun Sethi said the move reflects a long-standing position that regulated infrastructure is the correct path for digital assets to scale. “A national trust company provides the certainty institutions require and establishes the infrastructure to build the next generation of custody,” Sethi said.　　The OCC application builds directly on the regulatory groundwork Payward laid through Kraken Financial, its Wyoming Special Purpose Depository Institution. Kraken Financial is widely noted as the first digital asset bank to hold a Federal Reserve master account, a distinction that gives Payward a rare foothold across both state and federal banking frameworks.　　A Wyoming SPDI and a federally chartered national trust company are designed to serve different client needs and regulatory contexts. Together, Payward positions them as complementary pieces of the same regulated banking strategy.　　“Our Wyoming SPDI and Federal Reserve master account represent a genuinely unique foundation, and the addition of a national

05-10

ONDO Climbs 17.9% as Treasury Pilot Boosts RWA Narrative

ONDO climbed 17.9% after a tokenized Treasury pilot involving Ripple, Mastercard, and JPMorgan.Whale cohorts added about 77.7M ONDO in a month, showing broader accumulation across holders.ONDO must hold $0.42 to keep its breakout intact, with $0.47 and $0.55 as the next key levels.　　ONDO climbed 17.9% today after traders reacted to a tokenized Treasury settlement pilot involving Ondo Finance, Ripple, Mastercard, and JPMorgans Kinexys platform. CoinGecko data showed the token rising to about $0.435, extending a sharp early-May recovery.　　The move followed a successful test involving OUSG, Ondos tokenized U.S. Treasury product. The pilot completed a cross-border, cross-bank redemption, with the XRP Ledger processing the asset leg in under five seconds.　　Treasury Pilot Puts RWA Demand Back in Focus　　The rally came after two developments placed Ondo deeper into the real-world asset conversation. On May 4, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation named Ondo Finance to its tokenization working group, which included more than 50 financial firms.　　Two days later, Kinexys by JPMorgan, Mastercard, Ripple, and Ondo completed the Treasury redemption pilot. The transaction tested how public blockchain networks can link tokenized assets with traditional banking settlement systems.　　The key point for traders was utility. The test showed tokenized Treasuries moving across borders and banks in

05-10

US-Israel strikes target Irans nuclear weaponization capabilities

## Market Snapshot　　Iran Military Action Against Neighbors is currently priced at 0% YES. The US-Iran Nuclear Deal by May 31 market shows a 17.5% YES probability, down from 20% yesterday. Iran Airspace Closure by May 31 is priced at 28.5% YES, down from 34% 24 hours ago.　　## Key Takeaways　　– The focus on weaponization in US-Israel strikes on Iran suggests increased military escalation. – Market pricing suggests a decreased likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31. – Indications are consistent with a potential Iranian defensive action, such as airspace closure.　　## Article Body　　A report from the Institute for Science and International Security reveals that recent strikes by the US and Israel targeted Iran‘s nuclear weaponization capabilities rather than its enrichment facilities. This strategic focus during Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury marks a significant shift towards dismantling Iran’s nuclear weapons development capacity. Despite the attacks, Iranian enrichment facilities sustained minimal new damage, according to satellite imagery analysis. Diplomatic efforts remain at a standstill, with Iran rejecting US demands to dismantle its enrichment infrastructure and insisting on its right to enrichment. This ongoing military campaign against Iran‘s nuclear capabilities has heightened regional tensions, with potential implications for Iran’s defensive posture.　　## Market

05-10

ARK Invests Cathie Wood forecasts lower inflation, rallying dollar driven by AI deflation

While most of Wall Street spends its time worrying about stagflation, Cathie Wood is reading a completely different script. The ARK Invest CEO has been making the case that US inflation is not just falling, but falling dramatically faster than consensus expects, with real-time data suggesting the core inflation rate sits around 1%.　　The numbers behind the call　　Wood‘s argument starts with data most economists aren’t watching closely enough. According to Truflation, a real-time inflation tracker that pulls from millions of data points rather than the Bureau of Labor Statistics lagging methodology, US CPI inflation is running at just 0.86% year-over-year.　　Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is sitting at roughly 1%. The housing market, typically one of the stickiest components of inflation, is showing minimal price pressure.　　Wood has projected that official CPI readings will “surprise on the low side” over the next six to nine months. Her thesis centers on AI-driven deflation. As artificial intelligence tools become embedded across industries, they drive productivity gains that reduce the cost of goods and services.　　ARKs research puts productivity growth at approximately 3%, with capital expenditures hitting a 30-year high. Companies are spending aggressively on technology infrastructure, and that spending is starting

05-10

$1B exits Arbitrum, but ARBs price keeps climbing higher - Whats next?

Arbitrum [ARB] extended its bullish momentum over the past 24 hours, climbing 13% even as on-chain liquidity across the network continued to deteriorate.　　While the broader crypto market has recently shifted toward a stronger risk-on environment, ARBs rally appears increasingly disconnected from underlying liquidity conditions.　　Instead of being supported by fresh capital inflows into the ecosystem, the move is largely being driven by spot market demand and short-term accumulation activity.　　That divergence now places the asset in a vulnerable position as it approaches a critical supply-heavy resistance zone that could determine whether the rally sustains or reverses.　　On-chain liquidity weakens despite price growth　　Arbitrums recent price expansion has not been matched by growth in key on-chain liquidity metrics. Both Total Value Locked (TVL) and stablecoin supply across the network have continued to decline, reflecting weakening capital participation within the ecosystem.　　TVL, which tracks the total amount of assets locked across decentralized finance protocols on the network, often serves as a measure of investor confidence and ecosystem activity. Sustained declines typically indicate capital rotation away from the chain.　　Since tje 18th of April, approximately $449 million has exited Arbitrum‘s TVL. The scale of the outflow suggests that broader market conviction around the ecosystem remains fragile despite ARB’s recent

05-10

Kazakhstan plans $1.9B data center hub amid persistent power shortages

Kazakhstan just signed a $1.9 billion agreement to build out a massive data center complex, betting it can become the go-to hub for AI infrastructure in Central Asia. The countrys Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development inked the deal with an international consortium to kick-start construction.　　Kazakhstan has been here before. The country became one of the world‘s top Bitcoin mining destinations after China’s 2021 crackdown pushed miners westward. Cheap electricity and loose regulations made it attractive. Then reality hit. The influx of mining operations, many of them unregistered, put enormous strain on an aging Soviet-era power grid. Rolling blackouts followed. The government responded by cracking down on crypto miners, imposing new taxes, and shutting down unauthorized operations.　　Global demand for AI compute capacity is growing at a pace that has surprised even industry insiders. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has noted that demand for AI compute has surged by factors exceeding initial expectations. Capital expenditures on AI infrastructure across the industry are projected to surpass $1 trillion by 2028. The major hyperscalers, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, are collectively expected to spend roughly $400 billion on data center infrastructure by 2025 alone.　　Companies like CoreWeave have demonstrated the market potential in GPU-as-a-service infrastructure,

05-10

Crypto oversight split heads to Senate panel vote

Senate Banking Committee poised to take critical vote toward crypto legislation that would establish an outline of federal regulations for digital asset firms as well as split market oversight between the SEC and the CFTC.　　The vote represents only the beginning, though, because the bill has already weathered several months of disagreement among the interests of banks, crypto businesses, Republicans, Democrats, and lobbyists.　　It nearly passed in early January. That attempt was ultimately foiled by disagreements from the financial institutions and crypto businesses over the proposed language.　　Now, the committee is taking a second crack at passing the bill. In comments to Fox Business last week, Senator Tim Scott, who heads the committee, said he wanted “13 of 13 Republicans on board.” That means all 13 Republican members.　　Lawmakers try to settle the stablecoin rewards fight as banks warn about deposits　　Banks dislike the proposed text since it does not completely address the issue of the potential resemblance between interest and rewards in the context of stablecoins. The matter of concern is that the provision allows stablecoins to provide incentives to their holders, which might cause funds to leave traditional banking deposits and move to crypto products.　　The definition of a stablecoin is an asset with

05-10

AI predicts Nvidia stock’s next record high date

To determine when Nvidia stock might reach another record, Finbold sought insight from OpenAIs ChatGPT, which outlined several possible scenarios.　　ChatGPT identified Nvidias upcoming earnings report as the most likely catalyst for another breakout, noting that the chipmaker has historically experienced sharp price swings following earnings releases.　　The AI model projected that if Nvidia delivers another strong earnings beat and raises forward guidance, the stock could climb toward the $230 to $245 range shortly afterward.　　The forecast also highlighted continued AI infrastructure spending from major technology companies, including Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet as a key factor supporting Nvidias bullish outlook.　　According to ChatGPT, Nvidias technical structure remains favorable as long as the stock stays above breakout support near $205.　　The model noted that momentum indicators are elevated but not yet at the extreme levels that historically preceded major tops, suggesting there may still be room for further upside before a larger correction emerges.　　The AI-generated outlook also warned that volatility around Nvidia‘s earnings release could increase because the company has become one of the market’s most crowded AI trades.　　As a result, even strong earnings could trigger short-term profit-taking if investors believe expectations have become too aggressive.　　NVDA stock next high　　Even so, ChatGPTs overall outlook favors

05-10

Billie Eilish Lands A 99% Rotten Tomatoes Score, Certainly A First

Im not sure I can think of two more disparate names in Hollywood than 24-year-old pop musician Billie Eilish and 71-year-old director James Cameron, but throw all their Grammys and Oscars in a pile, and they probably would not fit on a floating door. But now the two have combined for what is looking to be a fantastic theatrical experiment, racking up top scores from critics and audiences on Rotten Tomatoes.　　The project is and the end of that may indicate how James Cameron is involved, also known as the only man making 3D movie-watching worthwhile in the last two decades, thanks to his out-of-this-world tech few can emulate. Now he‘s applying it to a concert show. But he’s not even the sole director, as Billie has co-directed it with him.　　As it stands, has a stellar 93% Rotten Tomatoes score with over 50 reviews in. And then a 99% Rotten Tomatoes score from audiences as they show up to theaters over the course of this weekend. Cameron explained the idea behind the project to the New York Times, which was idea, it turns out, after following Eilishs concerts and career:　　“Cameron‘s goal was simple. ”We were just going to basically be surveillance

05-10

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