CLARITY Act Odds Fall to 30% as Senate Clock Ticks
Galaxy Research cut the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year to 30% as bipartisan support remains uncertain.Senators released the first combined version of the bill, adding ethics rules, enforcement measures and changes to the GENIUS Act.Democratic negotiators said the proposal still falls short, leaving little time to secure the votes needed before Congress August recess. Galaxy Research loweredits estimated probability of the legislation passing in 2026 to 30%, down from 50% last month, citing shrinking legislative time, unresolved political disagreements and an increasingly difficult vote count in the Senate. Combined Draft Brings Months of Negotiations Together The newly published 616-page proposal consolidates the cryptocurrency market structure legislation previously approved by the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees into a single package. It also incorporates several negotiated additions, including a new ethics framework, expanded law enforcement provisions and amendments to the recently approved GENIUS Act. Among the most notable changes are restrictions preventing senior government officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets while in office, updated protections for software developers and self-custody users, a dedicated framework for digital asset custodians and broader anti-fraud authorities for federal and state agencies.Provision / CategoryBill Details & ImpactGovernment ethics provisionsRestrict senior officials from issuing









