Gold: The floor has been found, but where is the ceiling?
The US dollar staged a four-day growth against the backdrop of air strikes on Iran. Rumours of a temporary ceasefire have not been confirmed, pushing Brent to near $93 per barrel and fuelling inflation fears. The odds of two Fed rate hikes in 2026 are estimated at 50/50, supporting the USD. This makes the gold rally all the more surprising, as a strong dollar and rising Treasury yields are typical headwinds. However, this time demand is supporting the precious metal. Capital outflows from ETFs have given way to inflows. The 7.4-metric-tonne increase in holdings of specialised exchange-traded funds on 21 July was the months largest. Hedge funds have increased their net long positions in gold to a five-week high. It is likely that the resilience of support at $4,000 per ounce, together with golds poor performance in previous periods, has led investors to view the precious metal as oversold. By the end of June, it had recorded its worst monthly performance since the 2008 global economic crisis, falling at its fastest pace since 2013. During this period, pressure on gold prices was fuelled by rumours that central banks in the Gulf states were selling bullion via intermediaries. Turkey was the main focus of









