Is the US Natural Gas undervalued?
In this article I will talk about the U.S. benchmark natural gas futures contract traded on NYMEX (Henry Hub Natural Gas; CME Globex code: NG) and will attempt to objectively answer a straightforward question: ‘is the U.S. natural gas currently undervalued?’. I will conclude with my market outlook and whether I am currently buying or selling. Current price context The U.S. natural gas front-month futures contract (NGQ26) settled at $2.767 per Million British thermal units (MMBtu) on 27 July 2026, down 3.62% on the day. On the continuation chart, natural gas lost more than 16% in value this month and is down almost 20% since 1 June. It currently sits at 11-week low, below all key daily moving averages. The current price is also well below both the prior-year average of $3.621 and the running five-year average price of $3.818. Furthermore, a substantial disconnect exists between natural gas pricing at Henry Hub and global benchmarks, such as Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. Although this disparity is partly the result of major structural differences in supply access, it is still quite substantial. Yesterday, TTF settled at $19.398 per MMBtu, while JKM settled at $21.43 per MMBtu,









