Nobody has unwound the Japanese Yen carry trade yet
The Ministry of Finance was not in the market on Monday, and on the most recent positioning data the carry trade did not close either. USD/JPY trades just above 154.00 after giving up close to two Yen, its weakest in six months. What has repriced is the cost of the funding leg. The position that leg supports is still open. Tokyo had the window and did not need it American markets are shut for Labor Day, the thin-liquidity Monday that Tokyo has historically preferred for its operations. The move arrived without them. USD/JPY gave up roughly a Yen and a half between 08:00 GMT and 08:40 GMT, and the bounce that followed recovered less than half of it. The July 31 joint operation moved the pair several Yen inside minutes. This one took forty. The mechanics point the same way. Japan buys Yen when the Yen is weak, and the joint statement signed with the United States Treasury in September 2025 is written against disorderly weakness rather than strength. Tokyo spent ¥15.4 trillion, roughly $98 billion, buying its own currency between July 30 and August 26, when the Yen sat at four-decade lows. It is about ten Yen stronger than that now, and









