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Bitcoin surges alongside oil as BTC price finally decouples from the war narrative... until US markets opened

Bitcoin　　Bitcoin surges alongside oil as BTC price finally decouples from the war narrative… until US markets opened　　Bitcoin is trading near $76,600 after reversing from an earlier intraday push toward $78,000, while crude oil trades near $103 and the S&P 500 fell as the US stock market opened.　　Before the US cash session, Bitcoin rose even as crude oil kept climbing, suggesting crypto-specific positioning was strong enough to resist the oil-inflation trade for part of the day.　　After the open, the picture turned back toward equities. The chart below shows Bitcoin rolling over as the S&P 500 moved lower, while crude oil remained elevated.　　That leaves two signals in tension: Bitcoin can trade independently of stocks while cash equities are closed, but US equity risk appetite can still pull it back once the main session begins.　　Broader market data shows roughly $2.6 trillion in crypto market cap, about $122 billion in 24-hour volume, and Bitcoin dominance near 60%.　　Bitcoin market page showed Bitcoin in the upper-$77,000s earlier today up about 1.6% over 24 hours, with market cap around $1.56 trillion. The latest chart shows why that intraday strength fell off: the US open turned the move from a simple oil-shock divergence into an equity follow-through test.　　The

04-29

Crypto Long & Short: Guide, deliver, repeat: the hidden driver of token performance

Welcome to our institutional newsletter, Crypto Long done poorly, the downside is steep.　　It pays to give guidance (as long as you beat it)　　Research shows the value of forward guidance isnt just in providing it, its in its accuracy. Bartov, Givoly, and Hayn (2002) found that firms that consistently meet or beat their own guidance enjoy a measurable stock price premium over firms that dont. This premium compounds for “habitual beaters,” meaning the market increasingly trusts and rewards management teams that repeatedly deliver. Additionally, beating guidance is a leading indicator of future stock performance, regardless of whether the beat was genuine or a result of earnings or expectations management. Skinner and Sloan (2002) also demonstrated the inverse: growth stocks that disappoint on earnings expectations experience an asymmetrically large negative price response, far exceeding the upside reward of a positive surprise. Guidance accuracy is a proxy for management credibility, and credibility is a direct input to valuation multiples.　　Crypto is beginning to produce its own version of this dynamic. In December 2024, when Maples AUM was $460 million and their ARR was $4 million, Maple set guidance of $4 billion in AUM and $25 million in ARR for 2025 and later raised guidance

04-29

Here’s How The Ethereum Vs. Solana Rivalry Is Going

Ethereum and Solana are once again under close watch as fresh data reveals how both networks are performing, with recent fee metrics and on-chain activity offering a clearer picture of where momentum currently sits.　　Ethereum Vs. Solana: Fee Dominance And Growing Activity　　Recent figures directly address how both networks compare, showing Ethereum building a clear lead in economic activity. Data shared on April 24, 2026, by @ETH_Daily revealed that Ethereum had been generating more total fees than Solana for over a week. In the most recent 24-hour snapshot, Ethereum recorded approximately $2.7 million in fees, while Solana produced about $70,000. This 40 times gap highlights a sustained difference rather than a short-term fluctuation.　　The fee chart tied to this update provides further clarity. Ethereum‘s fee levels, which had been moving within moderate ranges earlier in the period, surged sharply toward nearly $2.75 million. In contrast, Solana’s fees fluctuated within a tighter band before declining significantly, eventually approaching minimal levels.　　Beyond fees, on-chain data adds another layer to the comparison. On April 27, 2026, @CryptoQuant reported that Ethereum‘s active addresses had climbed to record highs even as its price moved lower. The dataset, attributed to CryptoOnchain, shows activity nearing 600,000 addresses while price levels remain

04-29

Humana (HUM) Stock Tumbles Despite Q1 Earnings Beat Amid Unchanged Guidance

Humana Inc., HUM　　The company reported adjusted earnings of $10.31 per share, surpassing Wall Streets consensus estimate of approximately $10.19–$10.20. Revenue climbed to $39.65 billion from $32.11 billion in the prior-year period, also exceeding the anticipated $39.37 billion.　　However, the positive earnings surprise failed to boost investor confidence.　　$HUM Q1 2026 earnings: Massive Growth Masks a Severe Earnings Reset　　Humanas 23% YoY revenue surge looks impressive on the surface, driven by an accelerating influx of 1.1 million new Individual Medicare Advantage (MA) members in Q1. However, this volume is not reaching the…　　— Finsee (@Finsee_main) April 29, 2026　　According to Julie Utterback, an analyst at Morningstar, market participants likely anticipated that Humana would increase its forward guidance following such a robust quarterly performance. Instead, the company stood pat.　　Management reaffirmed its full-year adjusted earnings projection of at least $9 per share. Notably, the reported earnings outlook was actually lowered — revised down to at least $8.36 per share from the prior expectation of at least $8.89.　　This downward revision accounts for expenses associated with a multiyear restructuring initiative, encompassing severance payments, asset write-downs, and external consulting fees.　　Star Rating Decline Pressures Profitability　　Central to Humanas challenges are its diminished Medicare Advantage Star Ratings for 2026. These government-issued ratings, ranging from

04-29

If UN Notes Are Not Enough: What Counts as Evidence in Decentralized Markets?

The evidence problem behind the Polymarket dispute　　The dispute around Polymarkets “US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026” market has raised a question that goes beyond one contract: what should count as authoritative evidence in a decentralized market？　　Prediction markets are built on the idea that uncertain events can be priced, traded and eventually resolved. In simple cases, this is relatively straightforward. A sports result, an election result or a published economic figure can usually be checked against one official source.　　But geopolitical events are different. A ceasefire extension may be communicated through state statements, mediators, international organizations, diplomatic notes, wire services, and public media coverage. That makes the resolution problem less technical and more institutional.　　This is the core issue: decentralized markets need explicit source hierarchies before disputes happen, not after millions of dollars are already at stake.　　The case for official documents　　In the US–Iran ceasefire dispute, Yes holders point to several categories of evidence: an official US statement, Pakistans confirmation as mediator, a UN Secretary-General Note to Correspondents, and reporting by major international media.　　A UN note is not casual commentary. It is a formal institutional communication from one of the worlds central diplomatic bodies. For many observers, that should carry significant

04-29

Jerome Powell Holds His Final Fed Meeting Today—Here’s What To Watch For

Finance　　Jerome Powell Holds His Final Fed Meeting Today—Heres What To Watch For　　The Federal Reserve is overwhelmingly favored to hold interest rates steady again on Wednesday, in what is likely Jerome Powell‘s final meeting as the central bank’s chair amid a contentious relationship with President Donald Trump, whose pick to succeed Powell advanced to a Senate vote.　　Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved　　Key Facts　　Traders have priced in 100% odds of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75%, according to CMEs FedWatch tool, matching consensus analyst projections, according to FactSet.　　Betting markets also favor no shift in interest rates: Polymarket placed 100% odds on no change, and Kalshi projected 99% odds that rates will remain within their current range.　　The Federal Open Market Committee signaled last month that interest rate cuts would “likely become appropriate” should inflation fall below the Feds 2% target, and inflation only surged during the Iran war, with consumer prices rising 3.3% in March as energy prices posted their largest single-month gain since 2005.　　What To Watch For　　Powell will give his last speech as central bank chair at 2:30 p.m. EST, during which he will likely signal the Federal Reserve‘s policy should be maintained. His term as

04-29

Czech National Bank eyes 1% Bitcoin reserve allocation for improved returns

Bitcoin　　Czech National Bank eyes 1% Bitcoin reserve allocation for improved returns　　Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl has endorsed a 1% Bitcoin allocation in central bank reserves, citing improved returns without increasing risk. Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by December 31, 2026, currently sits at 4.7% YES.　　The market hasnt moved significantly, holding at 4.7% YES over the past week. The largest recent move was a steep 45-point drop at 12:16 PM. The $5,264 required to move the odds 5 points suggests a thin market, with daily volume at just $280 in actual USDC.　　The Czech National Bank‘s interest in Bitcoin goes beyond talk. They already run a $1 million experimental digital asset portfolio, separate from core reserves. Governor Michl first proposed up to a 5% allocation back in January 2025; this latest 1% figure is likely more acceptable to the Bank Board, which has been cautious. If adopted, the Czech Republic would be the first European central bank to hold Bitcoin, a move that could pressure other EU nations despite ECB President Christine Lagarde’s opposition.　　Bitcoin‘s low correlation with traditional assets like bonds is the core argument for central banks considering diversification. The market’s flat response suggests traders want concrete action, not statements. At 4.7¢,

04-29

Bitcoin Price to $90K? Bullish Onchain Data Teases BTC Price Direction

These conditions have also lowered expectations that the United States Federal Reserve could move quickly to cut interest rates. Traders had hoped easier monetary policy would support risk assets like Bitcoin USD, but recent economic conditions have weakened that view.　　Lower spot volumes often show that investors are unwilling to make strong long-term bets. Many market participants appear to be waiting for clearer signals before adding more exposure to Bitcoin. Still, weak trading periods have not always been negative for the market.　　In past cycles, long phases of low interest were followed by strong price recoveries once confidence returned. Some traders believe the current slowdown could become another accumulation period if selling pressure remains limited.　　Bitcoin Leveraged Traders Shift Toward Shorts　　Fresh data from market watcher CW showed a major change in the leveraged Bitcoin market. High-leverage long positions have dropped sharply to around $2.3 billion, suggesting that bullish traders are reducing risk.　　At the same time, short positions have increased, showing that more traders now expect downside movement or further price weakness in the near term. This shift matters because leveraged markets often react faster than spot markets during uncertain conditions.　　Bitcoin Price Leveraged Analysis | Source: CW　　Notably, traders using leverage tend to close positions

04-29

First central bank to test bitcoin says asset is ‘too risky’ for reserves

The Czech Republic‘s central bank governor, Alex Michl, said that adding bitcoin to the financial institution’s reserves could improve performance, but warned its volatility is much higher than other assets and therefore represents a risk.　　“Its volatility is much higher than other assets,” Michl said in a speech at the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas on Tuesday. “One day its price may be much higher or it could go to zero. Yes, zero”.　　Michl acknowledged that all assets face the risk of losing their entire value, which is why banks have portfolios. “A stock can go to zero. Even a bond can fail. So for me that is why it is not wise to bet just on one asset.”　　“The first time I used bitcoin, I bought a coffee. Today. that coffee comes to about $350, so it was the most expensive coffee of my life.”　　However, he insisted that while bitcoin through time shows “very high returns, but honestly it looks too risky.”　　The Czech National Bank became the first central bank worldwide to purchase bitcoin in November as it announced the creation of a $1 million test portfolio that includes BTC, a USD stablecoin, and a tokenized deposit. Approved by the CNB‘s

04-29

Bitcoin price retraces to $77,000 ahead of Fed rate decision, will it crash?

Adding to the bearish outlook, the MACD has printed a bearish crossover, indicating that short-term momentum has shifted in favor of sellers. This suggests caution for traders considering fresh long positions at current levels.　　However, the Aroon indicator offers a mixed signal. While Aroon Up remains elevated at 85.71%, Aroon Down is still relatively low. This implies that despite the recent pullback, the broader uptrend has not fully lost strength, and buyers may still be attempting to maintain control.　　For now, $80,000 serves as a formidable psychological resistance, especially with no rate cuts expected in the immediate future. However, if bulls manage to break through this barrier, the next targets would sit at $85,000 and potentially $90,000.　　On the downside, a sustained drop below $75,000 would confirm further weakness and could push Bitcoin toward the $70,000 support zone.

04-29

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