Hyperliquid takes a swing at Polymarket with macro outcome bets
Decentralized platform Hyperliquid is now competing with established betting platforms such as Polymarket, but with a differentiated mechanism for resolving bets. The leading decentralized exchange has expanded its HIP-4 outcome contracts beyond crypto price milestones into real-world events. This native prediction-market infrastructure allows users to trade macro contracts, such as inflation data and interest-rate decisions, directly alongside their standard crypto perpetuals out of a single account. Outcome markets mark a notable expansion for the decentralized derivatives venue, which built its business around crypto perpetual futures and initially tested the product using price‑outcome contracts settled against its own market data. Hyperliquid first tested the product on exchange‑native outcomes, such as whether bitcoin would trade above a specific level by a fixed time using Hyperliquids own reference prices. The latest rollout expands that model into real‑world macro events, or offchain outcomes, like U.S. inflation and Federal Reserve decisions, directly competing with prediction market platforms like Polymarket. Native resolution What sets it apart is that HIP‑4 brings dispute resolution and settlement in‑house, rather than depending on an external oracle network like Polymarket. Heres why it matters. Offchain events introduce a new problem: determining truth. Polymarket handles this through UMA, an external oracle protocol that uses an optimistic dispute system. A









