Hyperscalers’ Free Cash Flow Dips as AI Arms Race Hits Balance Sheets
The full-year free cash flow at Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft is set to fall to its lowest level since 2014. The decline reflects mounting pressure from heavy investments in artificial intelligence (AI). AI Spending Spree Pulls Big Tech Cash Flow Down According to recent estimates from Morgan Stanley, hyperscalers including Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle could spend nearly $805 billion this year, up from an earlier projection of $765 billion. Forecasts for next year have also been raised sharply to $1.1 trillion. “To put that into perspective, their 2026 spending alone would be roughly equal to what all non-tech companies in the S&P 500 spent combined in 2025. The expected ~$800bn for 2026 is nearly double the 2025 levels and about three times what was spent in 2024,” reporter Holger Zschaepitz posted. The aggressive push into AI is leaving these tech giants with significantly less cash. Wall Street forecasts show the combined free cash flow of Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta could drop to around $4 billion in the third quarter. This marks a dip from the quarterly average of $45 billion since the COVID-19 pandemic. “Their full-year free cash flow is set to hit the lowest level since 2014, when their revenues were