Bitcoin Q4 Bottom Seen Near $44,000 in New Cycle Memo
Bitcoin News Bitcoin (BTC) may not carve out its cycle low until the fourth quarter of 2026, according to a newly circulated cycle memo from analyst Benjamin Cowen that has formally shifted into bottom-watch mode. The analysis places the next major floor near $44,000, inside a $44,000 to $47,000 band flagged one week earlier. The core argument is that the reset now hinges on time rather than a single price level, implying the market could grind sideways-to-lower before a durable low prints. For those tracking Bitcoin and the broader Bitcoin tape, the memo reads current conditions as a floor-building phase, not confirmation that the correction has ended. Much of the caution centers on the 200-week simple moving average, a roughly four-year average price long used to gauge deep-cycle support. Bitcoin briefly slipped below that line during a summer flush toward $57,000, then rebounded to around $65,300 to reclaim it. The memo warns that this breakdown-then-reclaim sequence also appeared in 2022, yet the final low arrived well after the recovery. In other words, reclaiming a major long-term average is not, by itself, a signal that a bear market phase has concluded. The reclaim buys time and stability, but it does not close the
