BlackRock Warns AI Capex Is Turning Micro Into Macro for Markets
BlackRock Investment Institute warned investors that company-level AI capex now drives the entire macro market backdrop. The asset manager said its first 2026 theme, micro is macro, captures the shift. The note from strategists Jean Boivin and Wei Li lands as Big Tech capital spending tracks roughly $725 billion this year. That figure is up about 10% from estimates made before first-quarter earnings. Capex on this scale rivals traditional macro drivers. AI Capex Now Rivals Traditional Macro Forces The micro-is-macro thesis argues that capex from a few firms shapes growth, earnings, and yields. That spending now rivals central bank policy as a market driver. BlackRock estimates AI infrastructure investment could reach $5 trillion to $8 trillion this decade. The Magnificent Seven recently tracked roughly 57% quarterly earnings growth. AI is now the dominant force behind US equity gains. The firm believes AI could be the first innovation in 150 years strong enough to lift US growth above 2%. It stresses that the outcome remains uncertain. AI investment is pressing ahead. At the same time, inflation pressures are proving more persistent than many expected — even before the Middle East conflict. Higher energy prices may pile on to that underlying pressure. Inflation and the Strait of Hormuz raise