Dow Jones forecast: Bears eye 43,047–47,437 as August warning confirms breakdown
On August 6, we flagged a rare Dow Jones setup: two consecutive daily sessions with both the open and close entirely above the upper 20-day, 2-standard-deviation Bollinger Band, capped by an August 5 shooting star. Momentum was stretched (RSI-5 near 81, full stochastic near 92), and the NYSE McClellan Oscillator was neutral rather than the deep oversold readings that have historically marked lasting bottoms. The conclusion was cautious but measured: the primary trend remained higher, yet the combination pointed to a vulnerable rally and a likely pause or pullback toward the middle Bollinger Band. That pullback has now materialized — and then some. What happened after the signal Price immediately slipped back into the upper band and never convincingly reclaimed the August extreme. As of September 9, the Dow was last near 52,450, with the short-term RSI washed out, price at the lower Bollinger band (which is expanding), and the index below its 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day Simple Moving Average (d SMA). Meanwhile, the MACD has been pointing lower and has been in a sell signal since August 17. See Figure 1 below. Figure 1: Dow Jones Daily chart with our short-term Elliott wave count and several technical indicators. The original studys completed historical analogs
