High Fed Rates Trigger Crisis Fears: Is the Global Economy Breaking Down? Will Crypto Crash Again?
At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, the Federal Reserves interest rate decision was announced: the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting this year in which it has held rates steady. Starting from July 2023, when the Federal Reserve completed 11 rate hikes and raised interest rates from near-zero levels to 5.25%–5.50%, the Fed has maintained a high-rate environment for 36 months. Historically, during the previous tightening cycle (2004–2006), the Feds peak interest rate level lasted only around 24 months before the 2008 financial crisis erupted. Todays interest rate curve shows striking similarities to the period before the 2008 crisis, as illustrated in the chart below: Federal Reserve Interest Rates Since the 21st Century (Source: Macromicro) Among the 15 major financial crises over the past century, 12 occurred within one year after the Federal Reserve entered a rate-hiking cycle. The current high-interest-rate environment has already lasted 36 months, far exceeding the historical 18-month critical cycle, meaning delayed impacts have been accumulating for a long time. Now, as the “canary in the coal mine” of global financial markets, South Koreas stock market has triggered full-market circuit breakers nine times this year. In July alone, it plunged approximately 33%, marking the
